There Is Hope

This is a Leonberger blog but sometimes I post about books that are not about Leonbergers but are books that I want to promote. This is one of those of those books. I want to promote it because it features a lot of important and often misunderstood information regarding the environment. It is based on extensive peer reviewed research and data collection, and it is not controversial among experts, but some content may be surprising to those not entirely familiar with the topic. I recently read Not the End of the World Hardcopy – by Hannah Ritchie as part of climate change book club.

Photo of our blue Earth
Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

Not the End of the World is a great book on environmental issues written in the optimistic but realistic Hans Rosling style of Factfulness. Environmental issues are very real, and they are very big problems, especially climate change, but we have solved very big environmental issues before (acid rain, ozone) and we are doing it now. Doomism (we are all gonna die) is an unhelpful and not very accurate perspective. This book is based on hundreds of peer reviewed research articles and statistics collected by respected science institutions. The author is a prominent environmental and data scientist.

  • Hardback –  Publisher : Little, Brown Spark (January 9, 2024), ISBN-10 : 031653675X, ISBN-13 : 978-0316536752, 352 pages, Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.21 pounds, dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.4 x 1.19 x 9.65 inches, it cost $26.03 on US Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
  • Paperback –  Publisher : Chatto Windus (January 11, 2024), ISBN-10 : 1784745014, ISBN-13 : 978-1784745011, Item Weight ‏ : 15 ounces, dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.02 x 0.98 x 9.21 inches, it cost $21.13 on US Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
  • Kindle – Publisher : Little, Brown Spark (January 9, 2024), ASIN ‏ : ‎ B0C3ZPN6NT, 311 pages. It is currently $14.99 on Amazon.com. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
  • Audio Book – Publisher : Audible.com – Release Date: January 09, 2024, ASIN ‏ : ‎ B0C5JSZ6H9, Listening Length : 9 hours and 26 minutes. It is free on Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
The front cover of Not the End of the World feature the full title author Hanna Ritchie and it notes that she is deputy editor and lead researcher at Our World in Data.
Front cover of  Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet Hardcover. Click here or on the picture to visit the Amazon.com page for the hardcopy version of the book.

Amazon’s description of the book

This “eye-opening and essential” book (Bill Gates) will transform how you see our biggest environmental problems—and explains how we can solve them.

It’s become common to tell kids that they’re going to die from climate change. We are constantly bombarded by doomsday headlines that tell us the soil won’t be able to support crops, fish will vanish from our oceans, and that we should reconsider having children.

But in this bold, radically hopeful book, data scientist Hannah Ritchie argues that if we zoom out, a very different picture emerges. In fact, the data shows we’ve made so much progress on these problems that we could be on track to achieve true sustainability for the first time in human history. Did you know that:

  • Carbon emissions per capita are actually down
  • Deforestation peaked back in the 1980s
  • The air we breathe now is vastly improved from centuries ago
  • And more people died from natural disasters a hundred years ago?

Packed with the latest research, practical guidance, and enlightening graphics, this book will make you rethink almost everything you’ve been told about the environment. Not the End of the World will give you the tools to understand our current crisis and make lifestyle changes that actually have an impact. Hannah cuts through the noise by outlining what works, what doesn’t, and what we urgently need to focus on so we can leave a sustainable planet for future generations.     

These problems are big. But they are solvable. We are not doomed. We can build a better future for everyone. Let’s turn that opportunity into reality.

My Amazon Review of Not the End of the World. I expanded my original Amazon review a little bit and added pictures. To see my original Amazon review click here.

A Factful Approach to the Environment

The facts regarding the environment can be confusing. The fossil fuel industry, climate deniers, right-wing pundits and politicians are bombarding us with falsehoods, but poorly informed environmentalists and sensationalist media are misleading us as well. The author takes special issue with doomism, the belief that it’s too late and that we are all going to die. Both denialism and doomism, as well as efforts to minimize the problems lead to inaction. She points out that we need to accept that climate change is happening and secondly that human emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible. We could do better, but we are addressing the problem. What we need is to have the correct information and to be realistic, which will make it possible for us to take the best action.

The picture shows planet Earth on fire
Climate change is not likely to result in an Armageddon because we are addressing the problem. credit : Marcus Millo, Stock photo ID:1177629542

We have solved big environmental problems before

In the spirit of “Hans Rosling / Factfulness” she tells us about our successes and about our progress by using data. She shows us how things really are and how we can solve our current big problems. She explains that we are reducing malnutrition, eradicating poverty, and extending people’s life span all around the world despite a growing population. She mentions that we successfully tackled pollution in many large cities in the west, as well as the acid rain problem and the ozone layer/hole. Sulphur dioxide, a major cause of acid rain, has fallen by 95% in the US since the 1970’s largely thanks to scrubbers. By 2018 the emissions of ozone-depleting gases had fallen by 99.7%. The list goes on. When we make big environmental problems smaller, we stop talking about them.

Graph showing SO2 pollution in the United States and United Kingdom. The graphs shoot sharply upwards at the beginning of the 1900's, they peak around 1970 and then fall with more than 90% by 2019
Scan of graph on page 44 in the book Not the End of the World by Hannah Ritchie. Sulphur dioxide (and nitrogen dioxide) pollution causing acid rain has fallen sharply.

Greenhouse gas emissions have fallen in developed countries. It’s a start.

Climate change / global warming is a more difficult problem, but we are having some success here as well. The climate policies we have enacted so far are making a big difference. For example, greenhouse gas emissions in the US have fallen by more than 20% over the last 15 years. From 1990 to 2019 the greenhouse gas emissions fell by 21% despite the economy growing by 55% (in the 1990’s the emissions were still increasing). My native country Sweden is doing even better. Greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden has fallen by 39% over the same period despite the economy also growing by 55%.

Graphs showing GDP, (inflation adjusted), CO2 emissions, and trade adjusted CO2 emissions for United Kingdom, France, United States, Finland, Germany and Sweden. All GDP graphs are growing well whilst the CO2 graphs are sloping since around 2000.
Scan of graph on page 83 in the book Not the End of the World by Hannah Ritchie. Greenhouse gas emissions (mostly CO2) have started to fall in developed countries despite economic growth, and they are starting to flatten out in developing countries. The dashed curve represents the fact that if a consumer buys a product from overseas, he could be said to be responsible for the associated greenhouse gas emissions (trade adjusted).
Graph showing the various temperature scenarios for different policy alternatives.
Scan of graph on page 68 in the book Not the End of the World by Hannah Ritchie. Things would be horrible if we didn’t have policies, but we do.

EV Cars Really Are Really Helping to Save us

The origins of the world’s carbon emissions are: 25% Electricity and Heat, 24% Agriculture and Forestry, Industry 16%, Transport 14%, direct from buildings 6%, and other energy 10%. In the US Transportation is 28% and Agriculture 10%. Agriculture includes the effects of deforestation.

Source of US greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 from EPA (from https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions)

The good news is that the price of renewables is dropping, and they are now the cheapest while EV cars have become affordable. In Norway 88% of new car sales in 2022 were electric. In Sweden, my native country, 54% of car sales in 2022 were electric. The author urges people to switch to electric vehicles – they really are more climate friendly, contrary to what many will tell you here in Texas where I live. Even if their electricity comes from a dirty grid, they are cleaner than gasoline cars due to their higher efficiency, and the higher emissions caused by the production of the battery and other components is quickly neutralized by the lower emissions. With respect to minerals, mining, and land use their impact is much smaller than that of the gasoline cars they replace. Contrary to what is often asserted here in Texas where I live, electrical cars are indeed better for the environment and especially for slowing down global warming.

Photo by Rathaphon Nanthapreecha on Pexels.com

What works and what matter and what doesn’t

She also suggests that we try to avoid driving big SUV, fly less, try to use or support renewables, eat less red meat, depending on our circumstances (absolutism and judgmentalism is counterproductive). She advocates for carbon prices as an effective means to reduce emissions. Things that don’t matter or are counterproductive are recycling, not using plastic bags when shopping, turning off your laptop when you don’t use it, buying local (often makes emissions worse), buying organic food (often greatly increases land use), etc.

Photo by Sam Forson on Pexels.com

The truth about plastic

She mentions that landfills in the US and Europe are very well managed and are not a big environmental problem, unlike the developing countries. 1% of the plastic in the Ocean comes from Europe and I read elsewhere that 1% comes from the United States. The plastic in the ocean originates mostly in Asia and Latin America. A fact she mentions that may not sit well with some environmentalists is that nuclear power is a safe and clean source of energy, just like renewables, but without the problem with intermittency.

Photo of plastic water bottle by the beach
Landfills in the developed world are well managed largely avoiding the problem with plastic in the ocean. The same is not true for developing nations. Photo by Catherine Sheila on Pexels.com

Death rates from natural disasters have fallen

Another interesting fact is that death rates from natural disasters have fallen since the first half of the 20th century. And not just by a little bit. They have fallen roughly 10-fold. That is even though certain types of natural disasters have become worse and more frequent. The explanation is that science, technology, and economic development has allowed us to better protect ourselves and prevent the famines often associated with natural disasters in the past. The author explains that as nations begin to develop, they pollute more and their populations grow, but as it continues this trend reverses. As desperation subsides the environment and living conditions start to matter more, and the population growth subsides as well. She explains that trying to solve climate change by reducing growth or by trying to control population growth is a bad idea.

Better warning systems, shelters, logistics, modern medicine, prevention of famine, etc., have drastically reduced deaths from natural disasters.. Photo by Ralph W. lambrecht on Pexels.com

The Sixth Extinction is off to a roaring start but is slowing

There is no doubt that we’re destroying biodiversity at record rates.  It is often said that extinctions are natural, and that is true, it is part of evolutionary history. In fact, 99% of the estimated 4 billion species that have lived on Earth are now gone. However, the extinction rate matters. Over the last 5-600 million years there’s been five mass extinctions. A mass extinction event is when 75% of all species go extinct in a short period of time, set to 2 million years. During recent human history species have gone extinct at a rate that is thousands of times faster than normal, and many more species are threatened. We are heading towards the sixth extinction very fast. On the other hand, our recent conservation programs have been quite successful, and it looks like we are turning things around. The author also points out that if the panda or the rhino go extinct, we will be OK, but the same cannot be said if certain worms and bacteria go extinct. She admits that is a bit cynical to say, but we also need to consider species that really matter to our survival.

Photo by Jonathan Cooper on Pexels.com

In this review I mentioned a few facts from the book to give a taste of the content. Naturally, there is a whole lot more. All these claims and stats, as well as hundreds of other sometimes surprising claims that she makes she supports by referencing reliable sources and peer reviewed research. The book contains 100+ graphs, 335 references, hundreds if not thousands of interesting facts. I can add that Hannah Ritchie (PhD) is a young Scottish data scientist, senior researcher at the University of Oxford in the Oxford Martin School, deputy editor at Our World in Data, and she is the head of research at Our World in Data. She is quite an impressive young lady. I think this book is one of the most informative books on the topic of the environment that I have ever read. I think most of us will learn something important from this book. If there is a fact from the book that I’ve mentioned in my review that you doubt, why don’t you buy the book and find out the details and where it comes from. Maybe you will see the world with new eyes.

Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

A final note is that the statement in the title “How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet” comes from the fact that using UN’s definition of sustainability we humans have never been sustainable, but with science, technology and good policy we can be sustainable.

Various famous people are praising the book on the back cover of the book including Rutger Bregman, Mark Lynas, Bill Gates and others.
Back cover of  Not the End of the World. Click here or the picture to visit the Amazon.com page for the kindle version of the book.

To read more on this topic check out The Climate Journeys of Thomas and Larry or Reviewing The Climate Casino by William D. Nordhaus or Banned on Amazon the Book Review That Recounted One Inconvenient Truth Too Many. To see my review for Factfulness click here.

Reviewing Factfulness

The focus of my blog is Leonbergers, especially our late Leonberger Bronco, but sometimes I present a good book which I want to promote. Today I would like to present and review Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World–and Why Things Are Better Than You Think Paperback – April 7, 2020 by Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund, and Ola Rosling, ISBN: 978-1250123824, 352 pages, item weight 14.4 ounces, dimensions 5.3 x 1 x 8.2 inches.

Photo of Earth
Are you wrong about your world? Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

Misconceptions Are Everywhere

Yesterday as we were on our way back from our son’s wedding, I accidentally overheard a conversation among fellow Texans that went something like this “…the wind turbines effect how the wind blows and therefore they have a very bad effect on the environment”. I turned around to see if it was a shrunken head speaking, but the speaker looked like a normal human being. It was a man my age. His friend then stated, “also the wind turbines kill a lot of birds.” That’s also a misconception but perhaps not one as silly. Wind turbines do kill birds, and it is a real problem, but the birds killed by wind turbines correspond to a very tiny fraction compared to the number of birds killed by fossil fuels, cats and even windows. Then I remembered that I once harbored some pretty silly misconceptions myself, so maybe I shouldn’t be so judgmental. We all have misconceptions, but naturally we don’t know what they are. Misconceptions is what other people have.

Photo of a wind turbine
It won’t give you cancer or cause extreme wind patterns. Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

The world is full of misconceptions and not just about wind turbines, but nuclear power, all energy sources, animals, dogs, leonbergers, history, science, cosmology, space, evolution, particle physics, trees, Sweden, and all other countries, the state of the world, how the economy works, governments, vaccines, microbes, time, space, mathematics, quantum physics, plastic pollution, climate change, chaos, crime, etc. I have a bit of an interest in the topic, and I’ve made a list of more than 100 very important basic facts that we know to be true with certainty, or with a very high degree of certainty, and yet a large segment of people who are not experts in the relevant fields denies those facts or grossly misunderstand them. Having a belief that is contrary to the relevant expertise and/or widely accepted data is a red flag, yet so common. In addition, biases, a weak understanding of science, arrogance, and strong religious and political beliefs make it difficult to correct misconceptions. We are drowning in misconceptions, they are everywhere.

Man slapping his forehead
Misconceptions are everywhere. Photo by Andrea Piacquadio on Pexels.com

Overview of Factfulness by Hans Rosling

Factfulness by Hans Rosling, focuses on misconceptions about global trends and the state of the world. It therefore has narrower scope than my general concern about misconceptions, but it adds a lot to my special hobby. It focuses on the good news, of which there is plenty. It is clear that things like our health, wealth, peace and human rights have made a lot of improvements over the last 100 years. But somehow our biases tend to make us think that things are getting worse.

Man counting money
The world is getting wealthier and extreme poverty is vanishing. Photo by Karolina Grabowska on Pexels.com
  • The world is getting wealthier and extreme poverty is vanishing. The poorest countries in the world today are better off than the richest countries in 1900.
  • Children dying before the age of 5 has gone from 44% in 1800 to 4% in 2016.
  • The pollution of ozone depleting substances has gone from 1,663 kiloton in 1970 to 22 kiloton in 2016 (thank you Montreal protocol).
  • In the 20th century 300 million people died from smallpox. Today it is 0. (Thank you vaccines)
Photo of skulls
In the 20th century 300 million people died from smallpox. Today it is 0. (Thank you vaccines). Photo by Renato Danyi on Pexels.com
  • The share of undernourished people went from 28% in 1970 to 11% in 2015.
  • The average price of solar panels has gone from $66 in 1976 to $0.6 in 2016.
  • War casualties have gone down significantly and so have violence in general.
  • Deaths from natural disasters are down, not because there are fewer natural disasters, but because we are wealthier and better at preventing casualties.
  • HIV infections, child labor, traffic deaths, violence, hunger, child labor, are all down.
  • Cereal yield (thousands kg per hectare) went from 1.4 in 1961 to 4 in 2014.
Photo of Cereals
Cereal yield (thousands kg per hectare) went from 1.4 in 1961 to 4 in 2014. Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com
  • Child cancer survival went from 58% in 1975 to 80% in 2010.
  • Immunization of one-year olds has increased from 22% in 1980 to 88% in 2016.
  • Crime has gone down. In the US violent crime is much lower today than it was in the 1990’s.
  • Literacy, the ability to read has gone from 10% in the 1800’s to almost 90% today.
  • The number of scholarly articles published per year has increased exponentially.
  • The share of land surface that is protected has vastly increased worldwide.
  • The right of women to vote has gone from 0 to 193 countries.
Photo of a forest
The share of land surface that is protected has vastly increased worldwide. Photo by u00dcnsal Demirbau015f on Pexels.com

Hans Rosling, the author, was a Swedish physician, academic and public speaker, professor of international health, and he was the co-founder and chairman of the Gapminder Foundation, which developed the Trendalyzer software system. He passed away in 2017. To visit Gapminder and explore world statistics and facts click here.

Photo of the front cover of the book Factfulness by Hans Rosling
Front cover of the book Factfulness by Hans Rosling

My Amazon Review

Understand the World Better

In the book’s introduction there’s a test you can take to see how well you understand the world. According to the author, most people do worse than monkeys randomly selecting answers. Even well-educated people do worse than monkeys. That’s because we have biases or instincts that distort our view of the world. I should say I did well on the test, not because I am a monkey, but because I had knowledge of most of the statistics in the book before I read it.

Rosling discusses ten instincts: the gap instinct, the negativity instinct, the straight-line instinct, the fear instinct, the size instinct, the generalization instinct, the destiny instinct, the single perspective instinct, the blame instinct, and the urgency instinct. Once we have been made aware of these instincts and how they mislead us we are much better equipped to understand the world. The gap instinct makes us divide the world into developed and developing countries whilst in reality nations are on a sliding scale from poor to rich and in general moving towards rich. Also differences within countries are typically more important. The negativity instinct, our tendency to notice the bad more than the good, causes us to ignore the silent miracle of human progress, etc.

Rosling said something that resonated with me “the world cannot be understood without numbers. And it cannot be understood with numbers alone”. The book contains a lot of interesting statistics that may seem counterintuitive to many people. Surveys show most people believe things have gotten worse for us humans. However, people are better off. In the chapter on the negativity instinct there are 36 graphs showing how things have gotten better (32 graphs on just four pages). Violence is decreasing, poverty is decreasing, infectious disease is decreasing, people are living longer. Here are a few things that a few of the graphs show:

* The average length of life in the world has gone from 31 years in 1800 to 72 years in 2017
* Children dying before their fifth birthday has gone from 44% in 1800 to 4% in 2016
* The rate of undernourished people in the world has gone from 28% in 1970 to 11% in 2015, despite the world population doubling
* Cereal yield per acre in the world has gone from 1.4 ton per acre in 1961 to 4 ton in 2014
* Literacy has gone from 10% in 1800 to 86% in 2016

Despite all the good news in this book he says we should still worry. The five things that concern the author the most are the risk of global pandemic, financial collapse, world war, climate change and extreme poverty. He dedicates the next five sections to discussing those five concerns. However, another issue that he does not discuss is that as the human condition has gotten better that of animals has largely gotten worse. Not only are there fewer wild animals and less habitat for wild animals but with factory farming and other modern practices the quality of life for domesticated animals has gotten much worse. I know that may be outside of the scope of this book, but it was something that occurred to me.

One statement in the book that may seem confusing but certainly is interesting is this: “There has been progress in human rights, animal protection, women’s education, climate awareness, catastrophe relief, and many other areas where activists raise awareness by saying that things are getting worse. That progress is often largely thanks to these activists. Maybe they could achieve more though, if they didn’t have such a singular perspective.”

Overall, I loved this book because it is filled with clever analysis and interesting statistics. It is a book that will help you understand the world better. Unless you already know the facts and statistics presented in this book, this book will revolutionize how you view the world. It is also well written and well organized. I highly recommend this book.

Photo of the back cover of the book Factfulness by Hans Rosling
Back cover of the book Factfulness by Hans Rosling